Australia's future submarine capabilities are at risk if the government decides to abandon the Aukus agreement with the United States and the United Kingdom, a senior defence official warned at a recent forum in Canberra. Hugh Jeffrey, deputy secretary for strategy, policy and industry, stated that without the nuclear-powered fleet promised under Aukus, Australia would be left without any submarines. "Defence has been directed to pursue Aukus and we are pursuing Aukus and that's our plan," he said, firmly reiterating the government's commitment to the deal.
This warning comes amid growing scrutiny over the $368 billion agreement to acquire eight nuclear-powered submarines. The deal has faced criticism for its lack of transparency and concerns about the slow pace of shipbuilding in both the US and the UK, the two countries Australia relies on for its submarine fleet. So far, Australia has invested more than $2 billion of its pledged $9 billion to enhance the industrial capabilities of the US and UK for submarine production, but there are no guarantees that the submarines will arrive on time or under Australian command. Originally reported by The Guardian.
Concerns Over Submarine Deliveries
At the Security and Sovereignty Forum, former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull pressed Jeffrey on the implications of a potential failure to deliver the promised submarines. He questioned, "What is the government's Plan B if we do not get any Virginia-class submarines at all because the Americans are not producing enough for their own needs?" Turnbull expressed concerns about the ageing Collins-class submarines currently in service, which have had their operational lives extended beyond expectations. He highlighted that if Australia finds itself without new submarines, it would be left with these outdated vessels.
Turnbull, who previously oversaw a submarine deal with French company Naval that was scrapped in favour of Aukus, has been a vocal critic of the current arrangement. His comments echo sentiments from other defense experts, including retired Rear Admiral Peter Briggs, who suggested that Australia should reconsider its commitment to Aukus due to the likelihood of delays in submarine deliveries. Briggs argued that Australia should "turn back" from the deal, warning that the US and UK may not be able to provide the submarines on schedule.
Aukus: A History of Delays and Challenges
Jeffrey countered the critics by highlighting that Australia has attempted multiple times since the 1980s to replace its ageing submarine fleet. He noted that the current effort under Aukus is not the first, but rather the fourth attempt to secure a reliable submarine program. "Each effort, since then, to replace it has fallen afoul of domestic politics," he said, questioning whether it would be wise to initiate another program if the current plan fails. Jeffrey emphasized that abandoning the Aukus deal would lead Australia into a situation where it would have no submarines, a scenario that he described as unacceptable.
He further remarked, "If you really want to be in a position where we have no submarines then 'turn back'. I do think, speaking as an apolitical public servant, we need to get out of this relentless politicisation of defence capabilities." Jeffrey's comments reflect a deep frustration with the politicization of defence decisions, which he believes complicates the already challenging task of securing Australia's national security.
Moving Forward with Defence Planning
The Australian government is firmly committed to pursuing the Aukus agreement, despite the challenges and criticisms surrounding it. Jeffrey made it clear that discussing alternatives or backup plans is beyond his scope as a public servant. He stated, "It's not my job as a public servant to talk about 'Plan Bs', that's the prerogative of government. Defence has been directed to pursue Aukus and we are pursuing Aukus and that's our plan."
As the debate continues, the focus remains on whether the Aukus deal will fulfill its promises or if Australia will find itself in a precarious position without modern submarines. The stakes are high, and the government's decisions in the coming months will be crucial in determining the future of Australia's maritime defense capabilities.
Originally reported by The Guardian. View original.